4 on 1

I am going to suggest that the odds are not as stacked against the defence as one might think based upon the number of offensive players going downfield. Realistically, if there is 1 D, there should only be perhaps 2 max offensive players with a bid on the disc assuming everyone reads the disc correctly.  Space would not allow much more than 3 people to be in the 'catching circle'.

Firstly, if it is a huck, the defence has some time to get themselves into position while the disc travels. Since you elude to the fact that this is advanced play, I would think the deep D will be proficient at reading a disc from release by the thrower and would be going to the 'catching circle' immediately.

Secondly, the defence does not need to 'catch' the disc (although preferred).  By reading the disc and playing an anticipated position to bid, the D often has the opportunity to knock the disc or to 'get in the way' through legitimate position.

I am going to suggest (assuming a good, catchable huck):

• 25% chance of offensive completion
• 25% chance for a D catch / interception
• 25% chance of a D block / knock-away
• 15% chance of an incomplete
• 10% chance of some swilly, bounce off one defender through the hands of the anticipated receiver, then airbouncing on a warm updraft and being caught by the person standing 10 ft away from the scrum.
• Although, with this many people vying for the disc, 93.765% chance someone is calling 'foul'.

So, I guess I am saying that 65% of hucks should be D'd?

I like my odds!  I agree that assuming your Deep D is reasonably good at reading, and you have at least one guys going deep who is reasonably good at reading, I agree with the offence and defence having about an equal chance of catching the huck.  However, if your other players are good enough, I think that the chances of the knock away would be lower, and the chances of catching the swill will be higher.  If I were down field on this one, and that's a big if since I'm likely the idiot throwing the disc, I would wait for the deflection/garbage.  I think it breaks down as follows:

• Offence Catch 35%
• Defence Catch 35%
• Garbage Collecting 20%
• Disc to Ground 10%

hmmm I almost think that 4 offensive players would hurt the offensive team's chances.  2 'strikers' can effectively split the deep d.  Any more than that is a waste save for maybe one follower to pick up garbage.

 You say the D has a couple of yards advantage so at best it will be a jump ball.  I would argue that the chances of having an offensive player catch the disc 4 on 1 would be lower than 1 on 1 (although 2 on 1 i think would be ideal).

 Now if the other two players (whoever doesn't have position) are there solely to collect the trash then this situation may favour the offense a bit.

 If it's really windy to the point that reading the disc is a problem more offensive players would help.

Higy 

based on justins response, i assume he would love to throw it. i am working on a D set that would tempt the long throw. my opinion is that we could get the D 90% of the time. especially going downwind, alot of times it is overthrown... that and all 4 offensive players will not make it to the disc. and if it does come down to a one on one, its at least 50/50 to get a deflection.

anyway, the 4 on 1 is the biggest flaw in this D, so i was thinking we should set this up as a 'drill' at a clinic. altho the wind would be a big factor, i do want to see a little bit what it would look like.

as a PS. ... with regular man last year we regularly played the ins... so they couldve sent 4 long on us then and rarely did... and with this D as a comparison, the deep D is almost a bonus. anyway thanks for your opinions.

As another PS; against a zone heading downwind the huck shouldn't be needed.  Over the top throws should all be available making a zone very easy to break.  (From an offensive perspective)

D has a big advantage over O deep in a zone, regardless of number of receivers. The deep D is tall, fast, has a good read and an advantage of several steps. Additionally, in a zone, there's likely some wind tocontend with.

This is a big deal, because it means that the safest huck flight path, ie. an O/I that hits the receiver in stride, is not possible, since the D is ahead of the O. It's also not reasonable to float the huck out ahead of the runner as, again, the D will get there first. The only throw left is a jump ball.

The only advantage O has is that if the disc is not caught by the D, one of the receivers may be able to "pick-up the trash". But I can't imagine the side mids watching four receivers strike and not thinking "Hmmm, maybe I should help out long".

I'd say you've got at least a 70% chance of the D getting the disc. However, I suspect that most handlers will make the same assessment. Even very huck happy handlers typically don't throw it if they think the D will get to the disc first, no matter what the numerical advantage. It's also unlikely that a team's zone O would involve 4 people going deep.

Looking forward to seeing the play!

Personally, I'd say you should be at about 85-90% turnover vs. 10-15% offensive catch.

Assuming you are playing against a team of similar calibre and your deep D is one of the toptwo deep D players on your team. This would mean that, most likely, only one of those 4 players is of a similar skill to your deep defender and therefore he has only one real threat. Given a one on one scenario with this player, the deep D should have it about 95 % of the time, given their 3-5 yard head start, especeialy when it is a downwind throw. It is less likely to hang and be a jump ball, and more likely to be caught on the run. That 3 yard head start is near impossible to make up for. Addig 3 more players to the mix gives a slight advantage to the offensive team. Because you cannot box out two people at the same time. So, assuming that another of the 4 is fast enought to catch up to the pair of you, this forces the defender to actually pick the disc out of the air at a higher point, rather than just properly boxing out and using position. This may lead to slight misreads that end up in the defender jumping too early and missing the disc, making for an easy offensive catch. Assuming again, that a third person will be around, to pick up garbage, the likelihood of garbage when there are three people vying for the disc is high, especially on a floaty pass. So given the conditions and people, there should still be a huge advantage given to the defender.

From your description Lenny, it sounds like you're trying to bait the huck, by making it look like there's an open throw. With offensive players who are at an equivalent or most likely worse level than your deep defender, baiting the huck is not only AN opption, but perhaps the BEST option. We were always taught to bait the huck deep in the zone. Especially for a downwind throw. A lot of teams will exercise a punt-n-stuff type of strategy that will have them sending 4 recievers for a hospital pass, knowing that there is only a small cance of a reception. Personally, this is how I play deep D all the time. Unless I'm completely outmatched in skying ability,which doesn't happen that often, I almost always bait the huck. It doesn't always work, but it does enough to make it worth your while.

Of course there are other times when you want to try to eliminate the hucking option, by sticking really close on your man and making sure the handler doesn't think twice about throwing it, but I don't exercise this option, except in specific cases.

If you'd like Lenny, we can run this a few times on Sunday and see what a 5 yard advatage does for D.